Biz syndy biýdjetiniń 46%-y (B.Saǵyntaevtyń aqparaty) munai baǵasyna táýeldi memleketke osy jyl tym aýyr bolýy múmkin dep oilaimyn. Árine, qazir tek jyldyń basy ǵana ári biýdjet josparlaǵanda 2017-2019 jyldarǵa barreline 35$ dep boljadyq. Degenmen, 2021 jylǵa qarai 45$ barreline deiin ósedi dep úmittenip otyrmyz. Goldman Sachs jáne World Bank sarapshylary biyl $57.50 bolýy múmkin dep otyr. Alaida, keshegi jańalyqtar qýanatyndai emes.
Birinshiden, AQSh prezidenti Tramptyń "uzaq ári tómen munai baǵasy" strategiiasy bar. Ol boiynsha, sarapshylar barreline 30$ ne tipti odan tómen dep "eń nashar" stsenariidi usyndy. Saxo Bank sarapshysy Ole Hansennyń pikirinshe, ekologtardyń qarsylyǵyna qaramastan Kanadadan AQShqa baǵyttalǵan Keystone XL and Dakota Access munai qubyrlaryn tartýǵa ruqsat berýi munai naryǵy baǵasyna áserin bermek. Óitkeni, AQSh álemde jalpy óndirilgen munai kóleminiń tórtten birin tutynady.
Ekinshiden, slants ádisimen munai óndiretin AQSh kompaniialary Úkimet tarapynan qoldaýǵa ie bolýy múmkin. Qazirdiń ózinde klimattyń ózgerýine senbeitin Tramp "AQShtyń sý resýrstary" týraly zańyna ózgerister ázirlep otyr. ExxonMobildiń burynǵy basshysy Rex Tillersonniń AQShtyń Secretary of State bolyp taǵaiyndalýynyń ózi munai kompaniialarynyń lobbi artatynyn bildiredi. Bilseńiz, AQShtyń ishki munai óndirý kólemi Saýd Arabiiasymen teńdei. Iaǵni, AQSh munai naryǵyna qosymsha kólem shyǵaratyn bolsa, ekonomika zańy boiynsha baǵa tómen qulaidy. Al slants ádisimen munai óndiretin kompaniialar úshin baǵadan góri kólem mańyzdy, sebebi ózindik quny 30$dan tómen.
Úshinshiden, Saxo Bank sarapshylary munaiǵa bai Liviiadaǵy óndiris kólemi artatynyn boljap otyr. Sáikesinshe, bul qosymsha soqqy bolmaq. Onsyz da munai óndirisi kólemin qysqartqan OPEC elderiniń "shydamy" taýsylatyn shyǵar.
Qysqasy, Úkimettiń biýdjette barreline 35$ kórsetkeni beker bolmady. Bul jaǵynan Premer-ministrde tolyq kartina bary anyq. Endigi másele, biýdjettiń defitsiti men JIÓ-niń ósimine qatysty. Iaǵni, endi biz "tabysynan" góri "shyǵysy" kóp memleketpiz. Qarjy vitse-ministri R. Dálenovtyń aqparaty boiynsha, Aziia damý banki men Mejdýnarodnyi bank rekonstrýktsii i razvitiiadan alǵan 2 mlrd $ zaem biýdjet defitsitin jabýǵa jumsalǵan. Bul degenińiz, qaryzǵa ómir súre bastadyq degen sóz. 2017 jyly ulttyq ekonomika ministrliginiń aqparaty boiynsha, biýdjet defitsiti 1,7% bolmaq, árine bul san az bolyp kórinýi múmkin, biraq defitsitti jabýǵa qajet qarajat qaidan alynbaq?! Mysaly, 2017 jyly biýdjet túsimi 7,986 trln teńge, al shyǵys 8,564 trln teńge dep josparlanǵan. Aiyrmashylyqty baiqap turǵan shyǵarsyz. 2018 jyly defitsit saqtalyp, 2019-2020 jyldary balans ornaidy dep josparlap otyrmyz. Odan qalsa, teńgeniń kýrsy da munai baǵasyna bailanyp tur. Bul - úlken risk. Tramptyń sheshimderi bizdiń josparǵa sózsiz áser etedi. Muny Úkimet jaqsy biletinine senemin. Sondyqtan, barynsha únemdep jáne árbir teńgeni sanap otyryp, qajetti salaǵa jumsamasaq qaitadan qaryz alýǵa májbúr bolamyz.
P.S. "Tramp saiasatyn talqylap qaitesińder, bizge qatysy joq" degen azamattar oilanǵany jón.
